Buffalo Bills 2023 Mid-Season Review
“Think a little bit less and just play football…” - Josh Allen, 10/24/2023.
Welcome to my mid-season BLOG on the 2023 Buffalo Bills regular season review. As of right now we are 4-3 on a stretch of bad games over the last three weeks. This season is beginning to look more like the 2021 season rather than last year or the 2020 season. The 2021 season was the first season where a 17th game was added to the regular season and one preseason game was removed. The BILLS were 11-7 that year. We lost to the Chiefs in the Divisional Playoff game. You know, the one where Buffalo had the game won twice in the final two minutes, kicked off to Kansas City with 13 seconds left, and they got the game-tying Field Goal, won the coin toss for Overtime, and went right down the field in no time and scored the game winning Touchdown.
Yeah…That…Game…
Yeah…That…Year…
After losing to the worst team in the NFL this year, the New England Patriots, I do not BILLieve we are playing for a championship this season. We are not even playing well enough for the division title right now, even though we are only one game back and have that tiebreaker against Miami. Right now we are playing to just keep our head above the water line. I am basing most of this on what I have seen from the team, past, present and the flow of the games played so far this season. The injuries, instabilities on both sides of the ball, no identity on offense, missing key players on defense, our ability to know what the problems are during the game, but are not able to correct them, in-game, when we need them.
Earlier in the year we showed signs that we could adapt to what other teams were doing against us, during the course of the game, and we'd be able to make adjustments and then outplay our opponents after those adjustments. Now we cannot do that. Where we once had unity and played complimentary football has turned to too many young guys that are not true starters for an NFL team trying to make plays as if they were everyday starters. I have always viewed backup players as players that would start if the starter wasn't starting. That the team likes this guy but another guy is just a little better. That isn’t what I am seeing from our backups. What I am seeing are guys that are playing for backup jobs and play like it when they are in the game. First guy needs to make the tackle or at least hold up a guy and wait for help to finish a tackle off. The last three weeks it’s been first guy just misses the tackle outright or takes a bad angle.
Like the bad years when Buffalo was dead last in the division.
Guys would get penetration to make a big play and then whiff on the tackle. All of a sudden now we cannot trust our secondary to cover man on man in critical situations? We have to play zone which only works if the pass rush is there forcing the Quarterback to make a hasty throw. It hasn’t been there for the last three weeks. Too many backup players in the game that could not get off their blocks in the fashion we need to be able to run a zone scheme like that over the course of a game. We try blitzing and now we have less secondary options for zone coverage.
I have been writing about the Buffalo Bills games/seasons since I started my BLOG in 2015. Many of the older blogs related to the Buffalo Bills have since been removed due to age and them not being directly related to this team. That was the Rex Ryan years. The oldest BLOG I have for the McDermott Saga starts with the Divisional loss in Kansas City during the 2021-2022 season. It was that game when the emotional rollercoaster went next level and pretty much has not stopped since. I had already experienced some craziness during this cycle with the team. The Houston Wild Card loss where we had a two position lead going into the 4th quarter and found some way to lose that game. The “Hail Murray” game where the situational problems seem to have started and the AFC Championship Game loss to Kansas City. Granted we were never in that game. Kansas City beat us up and it was generally a boring game as a Bills fan. Josh Allen really showed growth that year that he could be and is an elite Quarterback in the NFL. The next year was the 2021 year. This was the season where we had ups/downs all year. The offense wasn’t as deadly as it was the prior year but showed signs it could be. We struggled, but ended up winning the division from New England. We played them in the Wild Card Game at home and destroyed them. There was plenty good feelings around that we could go into Kansas City and win as we did it in the regular season that year. It was right there and all we had to do was go and take it. We all know how that ended. There is an entire BLOG on my feelings from that game. Some of it, or at least the feelings I had right after that game are still present today. Some of the issues we saw in that game are still very much prevalent this season. I feel like that is why there is so much panic with the Buffalo Bills fan base, better known as “BillsMafia.” Two years later and it feels like the same ol’ same ol’ with the problems we have.
I Am Emotionally Drained Myself…
To be so close and have it slip through our fingers the last three seasons, four, if you include the loss to Houston. We are now getting these feelings of frustration almost game to game now. Last year it was frustrating because we were injured most of the year. The offense was being called by 1st year play caller Ken Dorsey, who was the Quarterback coach before he was promoted to Offensive Coordinator with the departure of Brian Daboll to the New York Giants Head Coaching position. Buffalo tends to hire from within and promote from within, so this was not a surprise. What is a surprise is how unbalanced the offense has been under Ken’s play calling. My home was hit very hard from Hurricane IAN that it was nearly three weeks before we could again watch football in a normal, comfortable environment. So perhaps I take the Buffalo Bills woes a little more personal and harder than others might. Not saying that I am going overboard as a fan. I feel like I am not, but I do have personal feelings invested on how the team does. To see us “this close” only to move forward in baby steps, but crash and burn like the resolve of a “feelings-hurt” teenager is disappointing, to say the least.
I told my audience I would take a day to think on this and get some feedback from the official media sources for the Buffalo Bills and the independent ones to see if my thoughts and feelings could be swayed either way. I have mixed emotions and thoughts here. At first I felt like, this was it. That our year is over and perhaps we will make the playoffs as a divisional runner-up wild card team that shows up to play, but can’t get out of their own way. One and done… I simply do not want to speak on my thoughts on the Buffalo Bills from a strictly emotional point of view and wanted some real world X’s and O’s perspectives before I began writing this. I openly admit that my football knowledge of X’s and O’s is not as sound as it was when I was a player. However, some stuff, most stuff, still stands out to me. I do feel like this year is closer to the 2021 year and that this current struggle in the year will build character, but it also adds to the pressure. The offseason after the Bills lost to Kansas City in that Divisional Playoff Game the sports media played it as 2022 is “Super Bowl or Bust,” and that isn’t how the game is played, even though the Bills BILLieve it to be “Super Bowl or Bust” each year. I just think that now, moving forward, our team has seen just about everything the Football Universe can throw at us in order to prepare a team for a championship. A lot of the greats went through it: Jim Kelly, Dan Marino, Brett Farve, John Elway, all had to deal with stretches where their team wasn’t playing well, but were still in the mix for the division title and playoffs. Sometimes they recover, balance shit out, and go on to win championships. Both Farve and Elway won Super Bowls after tasting playoff defeat. Elway had three Super Bowl losses before he won two in a row and one against Farve. Jim Kelly lost an AFC Championship Game and a Wild Card Game before ripping off four straight Super Bowl appearances with all four being losses. Mahomes has lost a Super Bowl, Brady lost three for that matter. So to think or feel Buffalo is out of it now that they are 4-3 and playing not so great means they are done. At this point there are ten games left and much can and will happen before the playoff schedule is made up and the media jumps on that wagon.
It’s been typical in the NFL in modern-days that if you are a team, you get/got hot in Dec/Jan, somehow, find a way to make the playoffs, you got a chance. Based on that criteria I feel like we're still in this thing. Miami lost to the Eagles on Sunday Night Football, the defending NFC Champions, in a good hard fought game. The Buffalo Bills are only 1-game out of first place in the AFC East. We beat Miami earlier in the year and get to play them again. We play the Jets and the Patriots again. Those are swing games. Those teams can also lose like we have been losing and probably will at some point in the year. The Dolphins so far have only been able to beat up on bad teams and have not been able to beat good teams. Granted they were both road games. We shouldn’t overly panic, but yeah, if we continue to hold onto false hope that this season is SUPER BOWL or bust then it’s a bust. Let’s stop thinking about home field, the division and the playoffs and just go out there and win games again.
Like Josh said: “Think a little bit less and just play football…”
We're still in this race; no need to panic, but we can sure lift up the plastic transparent casing that says “panic button” and hold our finger above it if we end up missing the playoffs. If we miss the playoffs you will see some major changes in the philosophy at how we are doing our business. Probably get new Offensive Coordinators and Defensive Coordinators, I’d imagine. I doubt Coach McDermott is on the hot seat for his job, but will have pressure to make changes in the team’s philosophy. Clinging to Super Bowl hopes this year is unrealistic at this point. We should focus on hiding our shortcomings and exploiting our strengths. Simplicity is key when the offense lacks an identity. Threaten opponents without extravagant plays, complicated formations, and utilize Diggs, Davis, Cook and the Tight End position better in those 5 Wide Receiver sets. Allen can still be a threat with his legs in a 5 WR set with 2 of those WRs being 2 TEs blocking for him in those packages. Josh Allen's potential remains untapped this season.
Our OFFENSE Needs Variety, Not Predictability.
I noticed a lot of predictability in what our offense is trying to do in certain situations. To me, when they run out of shotgun it is apparently obvious that is what they are gonna do. Sometimes we break a run from it, but we tend to run better with Allen under center and motion with a TE as the extra blocker, statistically. We should do what we do well, rather than fix what's broken. If we aim for the playoffs at 10-7, we must excel, not wait and hope. Winning more games, especially against weaker teams, is imperative. We lost to the league's worst team, which Buffalo allowed to dictate the tempo and pace of that game. We need both offense and defense to execute the game plan. It would be a great help that we need a game plan that actual has a level of success to it. There shouldn’t be a lot of surprises. If something isn’t working the way we want it to work, then we need to be able to change that in the game, as it happens. The No-huddle offense ignited us the last three games now in the 4th quarter, suggesting it's time to remove the training wheels off this offense and Josh Allen. It's a challenge, but it aligns with our familiar BILLS offense. In 2020 our offense with Josh Allen was super explosive. We were super-aggressive down the field and not just go routes, but Tight End, over the middle, deeper and sitting in the zone. We pushed the ball, north and south. Lately; I feel like we are shortening everything. The offense moves different when they are running tempo and pushing the ball. Even on the runs. Quick hitters in tempo can pop a big run here and there after a deeper attempt, whether it is completed or not.
Right now I feel like its last years style with 2021’s struggles and record. The schedule coming up is going to be brutal. As long as we win more than we lose we’ll be playing in January. Like last year; we are playing at the level of our opponent. We should be thinking about exploiting what we do well and ignore trying to overly progress with this offensive scheme. When you have no identity on offense, you can simplify things to keep the ball moving. It is what New England did to us. We do not need huge junk plays, but we should always be threatening teams with them. We came close once with Diggs. Davis can also stretch the field. However, if they are covering all that we can dink it down to the Tight End over the middle or out to Cook in the flats. Josh Allen should also have more to do. We have not used him to his full potential. It’s almost like we cannot multitask on offense. We do not know if we should line up in 5 WR or 2 backs in the backfield. It almost feels like our offense is getting slowly predictable. We can do what we can do and do it well. Rather than trying to fix something that doesn't work and hasn’t' worked since the Kansas City playoff game; two freakin’ years ago now. We are so far away from that. We are so far away from the opening night in L.A. a year ago. If we finish 10-7 and make the playoffs we'll have to get hot. We cannot just wait for the playoffs to come and hope we can win one before not showing up for round two again. However, we have to think about NOW, right now. There won't be a playoff game if we do not win more games than we lose and at least win against teams we should win against. We lost against the WORST team in pro football right now. They can't run, block, or tackle, turn the ball over too much and still showed they can't do those things against Buffalo at a very high level but Buffalo allowed them to do whatever they wanted.
Against the Giants we needed the defense to come through. Against New England we needed all three phases and all three phases failed us. The offense got hot once we went No-Huddle. Allen will keep us in games, but it is now time to take the training wheels off the offense. Why we are not running more No-Huddle I can't tell you. I can tell Dorsey doesn't like it, but I feel like that is the only thing that gets us moving in a way that seems more like the BILLS offense we are used to seeing. Coach McDermott expresses confidence in the team and their ability to turn things around. I tend to agree with him. At the end of the day we are good football team that is under performing, but it isn’t yet time to panic. It isn’t time to start firing coaches and benching players. If we have shortcomings and we cannot get around those shortcomings we need to do a better job of hiding them. We have done that the last two seasons. 2021 we had the number one defense in points, and yards, but the defense was very weak up front that year. That year the defense did not tackle well or cover very well in the big games against big Quarterbacks. We were able to win during those years because our offense kept the peddle down and teams would get behind or couldn’t stop Allen/Diggs so they would abandon their game plan, like run north/south directly at us where we are weakest. We did correct a lot of those issues, but with injuries we have absolutely lessor players in those key rolls and they just cannot get it done. We have to hide these weaknesses better. This is also why it is so important for the offense to get back to what they do best. Last year’s defense a lot of the same. It’s a good defense, but we are small upfront and teams should be able to run at us a little bit, which they have done. When we are behind and the clock is our enemy this is where and how teams can beat us. Our defense is a bend but don’t break, but when you have the injuries we have it doesn’t break, it crumbles. Sure, we can play most of the game decent and keep us in the game, but we cannot expect our Defense to hold off teams under those circumstances week in and week. Especially when the offense is having its own issues. We need to get a bigger lead and force teams to play us from behind. We can play from behind too, but don’t expect us to be able to score every time with a minute left in the game and one time out. It’s just not a realistic way to win week in and out.
The offensive line was questionable from the beginning of the year. However, they have played outstanding most of the year. However, they did struggle against New England. I do not believe this will be a trend, but you can clearly see when they are not up to the task how south our offensive can get. If we cannot protect Josh Allen we won’t make the playoffs. It starts there… Our special teams really needs to start giving us something back too. Not just the kicking game but also the kick receiving game. When was the last time the Bills blocked a punt or return a kickoff for a Touchdown? Stuff like that. Granted Bass is a great kicker, he has had a bad stretch. I feel like he will kick himself out of it. He has never really had a rough stretch so it is bound to happen. If we can keep it from being “a thing,” he will be fine… I trust the guy.
The last thing I want to touch on here is Coach McDermott. I make mention of this in the BLOG about the Kansas City Playoff Loss and I am getting a little tired of Coach not properly explaining himself sometimes. I get it. He doesn’t want other teams to get a philosophical grasp on what he might do in a game. However, teams already know by now. McDermott is not Belichick. He hasn’t coached in, what? 11 Super Bowls? Two with the Giants as Defensive Coordinator and nine with the Patriots. If Coach Belichick wants to be super vague about everything in a press conference he can go and do that. Coach McDermott on the other hand cannot consistently do that and it be just alright. All the situational football questions about the “Hail Murray” game. About the Kansas City Divisional loss, with 13-seconds to go and somehow the Chiefs get in Field Goal range to tie the game. The Minnesota loss last year. There have been many examples to show that Coach McDermott does not have a handle on situational football. He should be answering questions like this and for good reason. If he doesn’t want to get into these debates about football then correct the problem. Situational football is a thing that should be able to be managed at a level where it should not interfere with the coach’s ability to manage a game during the game. When questions are asked, he should answer them. As Head Coach, McDermott is like Captain Kirk in Star Trek VI: The Undiscovered Country. That as the captain of a starship, you are required to be responsible for the conduct and actions of your men under your command. This also means answering for them as well. If mistakes were made or are made, just be honest with us.
Tell Us Straight Up…
All coach McDermott will say is; “we discussed it,” or “I am not going to get into the specifics of that.” Well, why not coach? If he thinks it’s a negative thing to the team I get that. Then he should assume 100% of the accountability because I doubt he cares what I, the media, and the fan base think about him, personally. He cares about his team and rising above this to go on to win Super Bowls. If that is his reasoning, I would accept that, but just say it man; “Hey guys… We fucked up… We made the wrong call and didn’t know how to get out of it, so we doubled down on the prevent and it fucked us again. Right here, right now we promise our team, our players, our fans, that we will never prevent ourselves from winning a game or a chance at a championship, in this fashion, ever again.” Say that and I am with you man… When it comes to Coach that is all I want from him on these points. Just take the accountability. Tell the media, tell us, the BillsMaffia that. Do it with passion, do it with intention man… We will forgive you, we will support you. We all will and do. I can live with missing the playoffs. I can live with getting just a runner up wild card game attempt. Stranger things have happened in the playoffs. Need I remind people of the Oilers comeback or what the Titians did to us? How about the wild card teams that went on to win Super Bowls? I will list them for you.
• Oakland Raiders (1980)
• Denver Broncos (1997)
• Baltimore Ravens (2000)
• Pittsburgh Steelers (2005)
• New York Giants (2007)
• Green Bay Packers (2010)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2020)
So it is not OVER by a longshot. I hear no Thicc ladies singing. No last rights on the 2023 BUFFALO BILLS. No tribal ran dances, ran dances, huh? I BILLieve we will be there in the end. Anyway... The Good news is we are playing the Bucs on Thursday Night Football. They cannot run, pass, block or tackle either. So let’s see how the team responds. Let’s see their RESOLVE… It was also 2021 when the Bills came back and lost to the Bucs in Overtime only to rip off four straight wins after that, win the Division, blow out the Patriots in the Wild Card game and then that Kansa City game. This is still doable and even if we are 11-6, 10-7 or 9-8. If we get into the playoffs do not go to sleep on us. We plan to stay up pretty FK’n late… Go Bills…
• Data and Stats on the Buffalo Bills
2021 Season:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Buffalo_Bills_season